Translation
Heisei was an era that concluded after 30 years. I was born in December 1987, so in the first year of Heisei, I was 1 year old, and in the second year, I was 2—my age almost perfectly aligned with the years of the era. Because of this, I feel a special attachment to Heisei.
It’s often called the “Lost 30 Years,” carrying a somewhat gloomy image, but for me, it was genuinely a great time.
Perhaps because of that sentiment, a few years ago, when I spotted a book titled The History of Heisei in a bookstore, I couldn’t help but pick it up and buy it. Today, since it’s raining and I had to cancel my plans for the Expo, I’ve decided to dive into this book.
As a historical period, it feels too short.
From the collapse of the bubble economy to the IT bubble.
Disasters like the Great East Japan Earthquake and the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake.
The period when the Japanese economy thrived was from 1955 to 1991—up until the third year of Heisei.
Japan struggled to catch the wave of globalization after the end of the Cold War between the U.S. and Russia.
Ironically, it was during the Cold War that Japan prospered.
What undoubtedly drove the Japanese economy was manufacturing.
From the 1965 Tokyo Olympics to the bubble burst in 1992, there were many craftsmen in manufacturing.
What’s astonishing is that between 1955 and 1973, the average annual GDP growth was 10%—a truly remarkable figure.
2025 GDP Forecast Comparison
Below is a summary of forecasts from major institutions (based on calendar or fiscal year):
| Institution | Forecast Period | Real GDP Growth Rate | Nominal GDP (Trillion Yen) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cabinet Office | Fiscal Year 2025 | +1.2% | 629 | Official government forecast |
| IMF | Calendar Year 2025 | +1.1% | – | Only real growth rate provided |
| Bank of Japan (BoJ) | Fiscal Year 2025 | +1.1% (median) | – | Range: +0.9% to +1.1% |
| Daiwa Institute of Research | Calendar Year 2025 | +1.6% | – | Includes “growth base” |
| Mitsubishi UFJ Research | Fiscal Year 2025 | +1.2% | – | See report for details |
It’s striking how the growth rate has shrunk to just around 1%.
The Spread of Assembly Line Factories and Their Role in Supporting the Japanese Economy
Overview
Assembly line factories, utilizing conveyor belts to assemble products sequentially, were a highly efficient production method. This system employed many workers at high wages, and powerful labor unions successfully negotiated wage increases. The purchasing power from these high wages supported the sale of mass-produced goods, creating a cycle that sustained corporate profits and workers’ high incomes. As male workers’ employment and wages stabilized, women who once worked in factories or farms became full-time housewives, and children received education instead of working, leading to the spread of the modern family model. Moreover, the political influence of labor unions helped establish welfare systems, allowing non-working women and children to be covered under their husbands’ social security, funded by tax revenues and reserves from full employment and high wages.
Social and Economic Impact
This system improved workers’ living standards and significantly shaped family structures and social security systems. The stable income of men reinforced traditional gender roles, increasing women’s domestic responsibilities while expanding educational opportunities for children. Additionally, the development of welfare systems supported overall social stability and promoted economic prosperity.
Historical Background
This model resembles Fordism from the early 20th century, when Henry Ford introduced the assembly line in automobile manufacturing. During that period, high wages for workers boosted consumption and accelerated economic growth.
The Changing Economic Landscape After the Bubble Burst
This system resulted in markets flooded with mass-produced, uniform products. At the time, production and information technologies made it difficult to adjust production or distribution lines, hindering a shift toward diversification. That’s where major advertising agencies and the mass media came in.
Photo by Mido Makasardi on Pexels.com
To boost purchasing power, they employed every possible tactic to aggressively promote products. Dramas from that era were packed with stealth marketing (ステマ), sprinkling “new trends” and “new topics” to stimulate consumption.
Heisei could be seen as an era when production capacity matured and then declined, with various added values attached to the products created in that process to market them.
What is a Post-Industrial Society?
Definition
A post-industrial society is a stage where the economy shifts from manufacturing to primarily service and knowledge-based industries. This concept was popularized by sociologist Daniel Bell in the 1970s. It’s defined as “a developmental stage where the service sector generates more wealth than the manufacturing sector.”
Key Features and Examples
The table below summarizes the main characteristics and examples of a post-industrial society:
| Feature | Description | Examples |
|---|---|---|
| Dominance of the Service Sector | The service sector accounts for most GDP and employment | U.S. (77.6%, 2021), Japan (71.39%, 2022) |
| Knowledge Economy | Knowledge and information are valued as capital and drive growth | Software development, financial analysis |
| Shift in Employment | Transition from blue-collar to white-collar professional jobs | IT specialists, doctors, bankers |
| Technological Advancement | Advances in ICT drive productivity and innovation | Automation, digitalization |
| Globalization | Deepening international connections affect economic activities | Global supply chains |
| Urbanization and Information Hubs | Cities become centers of information and economic activity | New York, London, Tokyo |
- Shift from manufacturing to services.
- Increased importance of knowledge and information.
- Changes in employment patterns, with a rise in professional and technical jobs.
- Social structural changes accompanying economic shifts.
As information technology advanced and globalization progressed, Japan began relocating manufacturing to countries with cheaper labor. Machines started performing tasks once done by skilled workers, reducing the need to employ them long-term. What became essential were a small core of employees for planning and temporary workers for simple tasks on the production floor.
With the rise of IT, production lines became smaller and more flexible, allowing for rapid adjustments. Advertising shifted to direct mail and websites, diminishing the impact of traditional TV commercials.
The Next Wave After Post-Industrialization
Distribution and sales costs dropped, and with the diversification of sales networks and products, consumers gained access to cheaper and more varied goods. The broader range of choices made trends harder to establish, and even resistance to trends was absorbed as part of diversity.
At first glance, this seems like a win for the average person: cheaper access to diverse goods, and any form of enjoyment is accepted as diversity. However, this diversity extended to jobs as well, leading to a decline in stable, full-time employment—the backbone of welfare funding. As a result, labor unions weakened due to a shortage of workers who could demand wage increases, and the government struggled to fund welfare programs, forcing citizens to fend for themselves.
This situation widened inequality as people aged. Companies focused on retaining only the most essential talent, placing a premium on academic credentials as a measure of perseverance and potential. Parents, fearing a tough life for their children without higher education, pushed them toward university, often requiring costly tutoring. This financial burden made it hard for women to remain full-time housewives, increasing female workforce participation. Consequently, family structures destabilized, and the rise in options contributed to higher divorce rates.
The Victims of Heisei’s Economic Shifts: Rising Unemployment and Precarious Employment Among Youth
This particularly affected the younger generation, known as the “employment ice age” generation—those who faced severe job shortages from 1993 to 2005 during their job-hunting years. As of 2025, they are roughly 43 to 55 years old. Employers favored experienced workers over unskilled youth, intensifying competition for limited full-time positions. Those unable to secure jobs faced financial instability, making marriage difficult, prolonging dependence on parents, and contributing to delayed marriages and declining birth rates.
I often wondered, “Who am I, really?”—a question of identity that didn’t resolve in my 20s, leading to what’s called “prolonged adolescence.” The growing sense of instability and risk also fueled an increase in depression and other mental health issues.
In my late 20s, I was often fed by a bar hostess who said I reminded her of her ex-boyfriend. When she later introduced me to him, he was far more handsome, and I felt utterly embarrassed. One day, she told me, “The way you think at 28 will form the foundation of how you live from now on.” Nearly 10 years have passed since then, and indeed, my way of thinking hasn’t changed much.